Worth taking a chance @ six
Posted 16 February 2017 - 11:11 AM
Rj3, because you're part of the Texas tech staff I would love to hear your opinion on why air raid qbs haven't been successful in the NFL and why you feel Mahomes is different. I can't seem to get over the fact that an air raid qb has never succeeded in the NFL other than a career backup type level. i guess we'll see but the truth is, if Mahomes is successful he will be the very first air raid guy to buck the trend and I can't find it within myself to believe it will be different this time. I hate saying things like this because I know he's a human being and I'm not the type to fling insultst and think it will have no bearing on a person if he ever reads this but it's not personal. It's a disbelief in the system, not the person.
Fair question! Let me first start by saying being drafted in the NFL in the 1st round or an un-drafted free agent doesn't guarantee success or failure. 2 notables from Texas Texas that have proven that are Wes Welker and Danny Amendola (both UFA).
No QB that comes out of college is 100% mechanically sound, isn't realistic. Often times what may appear to be developmental actually is a strength, depends on the player and situation. Pat is no exception to this rule. He has things he can develop on which will make him a better QB in the long run, he's 20 years old!
Unlike most QB's in college, Pat ran the offense the last 2 seasons. He made every call at the line of scrimmage. Unless you have 100% absolute confidence in your QB, college coaches wont do that. His football IQ both offensively and defensively is through the roof! Even though TT had the #1 offense in the country (mostly because of Pat), our OL was challanged and out manned in almost every game which kept Pat on the run, scrambling, extending plays, and finding receivers. He has "by far" the strongest arm in college football and his accuracy is second to none. Very dangerous on his feet when he has to run the ball.
Unfortunately, TT also had the #128 ranked defense in the county. For those not familiar with college football there are only 128 D1 teams (dead last in defense). Pretty amazing and tough on your offense when you think about it. The ONLY thing keeping Pat away from the Heisman this year or legitimate 1st round 1st QB taken in the draft is TT win/loss record. Had Pat played at OU this season (B Mayfield, whom Pat beat out at TT), he would be a Heisman Trophy winner and possibly a National Champion.
His ability to play QB and manage a game at any level are zero concerns of NFL teams. Once he get's in a situation where he has a supporting cast of offensive and defensive players, allows him time to step in the pocket, have time to make reads and check downs, and has a defense that can keep teams from scoring 50+ points the kid is going to rack up W's where ever he plays.
Fair assessment on the air ride system type QB. None have panned out and the Jets have been burned twice (Geno, Petty). Neither of those two come close to the football IQ of Pat or ability or arm strength and accuracy. Time will tell. Keep your eyes him wherever he lands!
Posted 16 February 2017 - 12:08 PM
Posted 16 February 2017 - 03:45 PM
How many QBs come out of the Texas Tech scheme and star in the NFL? Is he the next Kliff Kingsbury?
Posted 17 February 2017 - 09:32 AM
Hank particularly liked the episode where Gruden raved about Christian Hackenberg and said he would be "shocked" if Hack wasn't a 1st round pick.
Posted 17 February 2017 - 09:38 AM
You should watch it. Hack's football smarts are clear to see. Gruden very complimentary about him.
Posted 17 February 2017 - 11:18 AM
Posted 19 February 2017 - 10:50 AM
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QB prospect worthy of the hype? Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes has generated plenty of buzz in league circles, but he remains one of the most challenging evaluations in the 2017 draft class. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound gunslinger is unquestionably one of the most talented passers in the draft after passing for more than 11,000 yards and 93 touchdowns with only 29 interceptions in three seasons. Although the Red Raiders' Air Raid system certainly makes statistical stars out of every field general that steps behind the center, Mahomes' impressive combination of arm talent and athleticism gives him a legitimate shot of becoming a franchise quarterback at the next level.
"He definitely has the tools to be a No. 1," said an NFC scout. "He's big and athletic with big-time arm talent. I know his numbers are inflated but he can make all of the throws. I think the kid can play. ... I like him a lot!"
Despite the effusive praise being lavished on Mahomes, I believe evaluators face quite a dilemma when assessing his talent and potential. While there's no disputing his physical skills, there are certainly valid concerns regarding his ability to master a pro scheme after thriving in a system that allowed him to throw 40-plus times each week. Sure, the reps help the quarterback master the art of throwing the ball, but the simple reads and pick-and-stick throws associated with the scheme don't necessarily translate to the pro game. Thus, a team willing to take on Mahomes should consider him a developmental prospect and map out a long-term plan to help him grow into the position.
Considering those factors alone, I was a little surprised to hear my colleague Ian Rapoport tell the Setting The Edge podcast that several people have pegged Mahomes as their "favorite quarterback" in the draft. Now, I definitely understand how evaluators fall in love with prospects based on their natural talents and athleticism, but quarterbacks are evaluated differently due to the rigorous demands of the position, particularly from a mental standpoint. In the NFL, the quarterback is the de facto CEO of the team and he must possess the leadership skills, aptitude, and diagnostic skills to direct an offense between the lines.
Considering how the quarterback is viewed as the joystick for the offensive coordinator in the video-game-like Air Raid system, there are valid concerns regarding Mahomes' ability to assimilate into a pro-style scheme. Remember, there haven't been many NFL success stories in the Air Raid tree (Washington State, Texas Tech and Cal) despite the gaudy resumes of the field generals that have starred in the system. Sure, Jared Goff was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft, but the football world is still waiting to see if he eventually cuts the mustard as a franchise quarterback. That's why there is some hesitation in anointing Mahomes as one of the top prospects due to the repeated failures of his predecessors from the system.
After studying the tape of Mahomes' game, I believe his shoddy footwork and mechanics might trump the concerns about his ability to master concepts of an NFL scheme. Mahomes rarely takes a traditional drop in the pocket and his penchant for throwing balls while fading away or from a flat-foot platform leads to wayward throws down the field. In a league where accuracy is coveted at a premium, Mahomes' inconsistent mechanics could lead to a number of turnovers on tips and overthrows.
While watching a "sandlot" playmaker deliver a few splash plays on tape is tantalizing, it's hard for a play caller to work with an improvisational specialist at the position when attempting to build winning game plans. Offensive coordinators prefer to take a systematic approach akin to a chess match when picking apart defenses from the press box (or sidelines) and it's challenging to stick to the script when the QB1 is at his best throwing alley oops at the end of scrambles. Now, that statement isn't meant to discredit Mahomes' talent as a big, athletic gunslinger, but his style of play doesn't necessarily fit structured systems that expect the quarterback to hit his designated receivers on time after going through his progressions.
With that in mind, I'm still having a tough time envisioning Mahomes as a top-tier quarterback prospect despite his natural talents and potential. -- Bucky Brooks
Posted 19 February 2017 - 11:10 AM
(this board software doesn't transfer any embedded videos, or I just don't know how to make it do so)
Is Patrick Mahomes the best QB in the NFL Draft? Kyle Posey
By Kyle Posey Posted on Feb 15, 2017 ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 25:
It’s natural to be immediately turned off by something you’re not used to. In football, this is especially true. People who watch the sport every Sunday cannot stand the thought of variance. In most people’s mind, there’s one way to do something. If it’s not done that way, they’re immediately combative. Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes is living proof that there’s more than one way to skin a cat when it comes to playing the position at a high level.
If you’re familiar with “the Parcells rules” the lone area Mahomes falls short that he can control is he has less than 23 wins. Mahomes lost five games this year alone where he led his offense to over 35 points. Two of those losses the offense scored over 55 points. Mahomes is basically a walking asterisk.
4 MAIN TRAITS
When you break it down, there’s essentially four major traits and we can either build off each or lump them: accuracy, arm, pocket movement and decision making. There are plenty of reps where each of these tie into each other. Here’s how Mahomes fares for each trait. I’ll use three examples for each. While I’ll only use three, these are consistently what I see with Mahomes, not anomalies.
Ball placement is the most important trait for a QB. Subtle differences like leading a receiver so he can maximize the yards after catch, throwing him open, letting him run under deep passes, are all vital to the position and it’s what separates the top 10 quarterbacks from the guys who likely won’t get second contracts. Accuracy can be affected by plenty of things. In the most layman terms, we see inaccuracy due to
In the most layman terms, we see inaccuracy with his lower body all out of whack. An example being something as simple as not following through on your throws. So your “trail leg” leave the ground. “Step to and through to your target” is something I always hear. This ties into a quarterback’s upper body as well. You can watch a quarterback and see if he falls off to his left or right, instead of through the receiver, and safely assume the throw was inaccurate.
Not with Mahomes. Not the walking asterisk.
You can see from the end zone angle Mahomes feet are parallel with the sideline. That has to drive a QB coach nuts. Until you see the result is low and away from the defender.
I see many people are terrified of Mahomes mechanics. I would be as well if he was missing throws left and right. With Patrick, it’s more laziness and reliant on his arm than anything else. I’d compare it to a freakishly gifted receiver who never had to learn to run precise routes because he always won with athleticism. Mahomes is in the same boat, just with his arm.
Make no mistake, there are gimme throws he will miss because he doesn’t do the day 1 footwork steps. That causes him to 1 hop curl throws. Or lead receivers over the middle a step too far. Or the ball will sail on him. There are also times where he plays “too fast.” He has more time than he thinks and he doesn’t get set and will overshoot his receivers deep.
The good thing about Mahomes is he recognizes things quickly and has a quick trigger. When he’s playing slow and under control, he gets in a zone and looks like a star QB. It’s the inconsistencies, like speeding up his process, that makes him maddening. You can only get away with your arm for so long.
The thing that I’ve been most impressive with is Mahomes on third downs. His accuracy when he needs to make a play goes to another level. That cannot be discounted. It’s not always the big, flashy play, either. Sure, he has plenty of them. But the throws that are easily overlooked are what stood out to me.
It’s third and one and the defender is all over the receiver. Mahomes puts the ball low and away, where not only the receiver can make the play, but still gives him a chance to run after the catch. I’d say about 5-10 times a game there were throws where he’d make a throw like that. It doesn’t seem like much, but his ball placement really lets his playmakers get the most out of plays.
If I had to put a grade on it, I’d say Mahomes has mid-second-round accuracy.
Arm strength is key. Pretending like it isn’t is naive. You can hide some things with timing but only so much. I’m not referring to how far you can throw it. I’m very much referring to velocity up to 15 yards at all levels. When judging an arm it’s not just limited that, either. How is a quarterback using his arm? Does he know when to use the right trajectory? Does he have the touch to loft it over linebackers? Can he drop it in a bucket over the corners head? Everything can’t be a bullet, but everything can’t be a softball.
Mahomes has the best arm in the class.
There are plenty of quarterbacks with strong arms. Not many quarterbacks can complement their velocity with touch. With Mahomes, this isn’t a problem. At all.
The second and fifth throws are great examples of how easy Mahomes makes downfield throws. These throws you are seeing are not routine. They’re not normal. You’d be hard pressed to find 10 quarterbacks at any level that can make them.
Mahomes has the best arm in the class.
You could easily credit this to pocket presence as Mahomes hangs in there as a blitzer is running full speed to decapitate him on third down. But an opposite hash throw that’s on target with the perfect precision is everything you want.
Mahomes has the best arm in the class.
Being able to make each throw to every level of the field opens up the playbook for play-callers. On scramble drills, the defense has to respect everyone. The defense is held accountable. Having a big arm is significant. Putting a grade on it, Mahomes has a top 5 grade on his arm.
Pocket movement is somewhat self-explanatory. When you’re getting rushed from the edge, do you climb if there’s a pocket to step into? If you’re getting flushed from the pocket up the middle, are you sliding left or right to buy your receivers more time? Do you bail from a clean pocket? There’s going to be several times a game when you have to leave the pocket. When you’re asked to scramble, do you drop your eyes or are you keeping your eyes downfield?
In Mahomes case, he has some of the best QB vision I’ve seen in recent years. Watch him and watch his helmet. He not only goes through progressions quickly but he knows where his receivers are at all times. When he is flushed from the pocket it’s remarkable how Mahomes eyes remain downfield to find a receiver. Watch him when his first read isn’t there. There’s no panic. Calmly scans the field and will maneuver around the pocket and hit a receiver in stride.
Third and long and it’s a zone blitz. Virtually, both edge guys come free. Mahomes manipulates 1 defender and runs away from the other. All while keeping his eyes downfield and making an accurate strike downfield. With him, this was the norm. With him, if he didn’t convert on third down, you figured something must’ve gone wrong.
1st down conversion % on 3rd&long passes (7+ yd) this year:
That is an incredible stat considering the pressure he faced. Mahomes converted in spite of his offensive line. I’m not going to ignore that. He’s a playmaker.
In case you're worried that Patrick Mahomes II is a reckless QB: 14 fumbles in 1657 pass/rush/sacks, 3.2:1 TD:INT career (4.1:1 this year)
Protecting the ball is just as important. I get that we’re worried about how he carries the ball, but he’s not turning it over at a reckless rate so there’s no need to expect that it will suddenly become a problem in the NFL.
I mentioned how Mahomes plays too fast. There are exposures where he flees the pocket too quickly wanting to make something happen. I’m not overly concerned considering I’ve seen him stand tall in the face of the blitz. But I’m not going to pretend like it doesn’t happen. He will leave a clean pocket. His internal clock is too fast in the pocket.
Where Mahomes excels is when he’s forced to climb the pocket. He will scramble but only as a last resort. He’s looking for someone to come open at the last minute and as we know, the smallest of windows aren’t an issue for him.
It looks easy. It’s not supposed to be. In a situation like that, a common quarterback would drop his eyes and likely try to rush for the first down. Patrick is uncommon. He is unlike the majority of quarterbacks you will watch. There will be variance. It won’t always be sunshine and roses. In the pocket, he’ll take sacks he shouldn’t be trying to do too much when he should either throw it out of bounds or take the check down. By in large his ability to shift around the pocket is high quality by NFL standards.
Third and 20. Left guard gets beat. Mahomes climbs the pocket, avoids the rush, doesn’t panic and throws a dart 20 yards down the seam for a first down.
Putting a grade on Mahomes pocket movement I’d give him a fringe 2nd round grade.
Another self-explanatory trait that is imperative with the position. Good decision making and being a good quarterback is synonymous. The right decision sometimes can be as simple as throwing the ball out of bounds when nothing is there. Or dumping it off to your running back. There are times where eating the ball and taking a sack is a good decision. You could tie this into the trio of traits above as well.
In the structure of the play, Mahomes makes fine decisions. He knows where to go at all times with the ball, that certainly helps. The decision making is quick, and throws are on time. With Tech’s spread offense, often teams will rush three and drop eight. When they do this it’s a great way to get a feel for Mahomes decision making. He did a good job of letting routes develop and taking the check down. Tech also runs a ton of screens and he shows the awareness not to force it if it’s not there. Those are the small things you appreciate about Mahomes.
The further away from the structure of the play, the worse Mahomes decision making gets. Once a game he’ll have a WTF throw. The worst part is they come at the most inopportune times. These are the throws that turn people away from him, not the “system.”
Everything is wrong with this rep. Notice the down and distance. You hear coaches say “every possession needs to end with a kick.” Mahomes needs to take the loss here and realize that a punt isn’t bad. Luckily, the receiver bailed him out.
You can see that, at times, his gift is his curse. His ability to see the field and the arm he has makes Mahomes feel like he can get away with throws he has no business making. That entire rep was a bad decision. Starting with drifting in the pocket, to not getting his feet set, lead to him throwing across his body and the outcome of an interception isn’t much of a surprise.
This last one is a pick six nine out of 10 times. He just happened to get lucky here.
That’s a situation where either dump it to the running back or eat it. I can imagine a coordinator wanting to put those electric chokers on Mahomes during practice for whenever he gets that impulse to make a poor decision, you get the point.
I would give Mahomes a third-round grade for his decision making. There is a ton of good but the lows are worrisome.
WHY YOU PICK MAHOMES
Now that I’ve lost you, let me reel you back in. I could show you 20 plays where your jaw just drops. There was a series against TCU where he avoided a sack every play. On fourth down, he avoided two defenders and picked up the first down with his legs. Some of his throws on the run where he hits a receiver in stride I could play on a loop all day.
His vision is uncanny. His arm is unbelievable. His accuracy is unorthodox. If you can hone in his decision making, you’re looking at a future star. Being able to create and extend is a skill. He’s not confined to a specific offense. That matters.
Don’t criticize him for the offense he played in. Applaud him for how he excelled and elevated the offense. At worst, you get a high variance QB that will go on streaks just long enough to give him a pass (Eli Manning). At best, you get a QB that can control the entire field with his vision, manipulate defenses with pump fakes, his legs, and consistently keep your offense ahead of schedule, ultimately leading to a lot of point (Ben Roethlisberger). Because of that, and the traits Mahomes excel at are why I believe he’s the best quarterback in the draft.
Hey Maven....can we update the board software so embedded videos transfer here and can be played? Every other Jets forum has that feature!
Posted 19 February 2017 - 12:08 PM
Posted 19 February 2017 - 12:22 PM
Crapapola was a second, this guy might go first. He moves better than Craps and has a bigger gun
Posted 21 February 2017 - 12:28 PM
Jimmy Garoppolo thinks his mother could give NFL reporters a run for their money.
The Patriots' backup quarterback — who stepped up, along with Jacoby Brissett, during Tom Brady's four-game Deflategate ban — told ESPN's Adam Schefter that he gets all his trade news from his mom.
“I’m telling you, she could be your assistant,” Garoppolo said on Schefter's "Know Them From Adam" podcast. “She’s all over the place. Her and my dad on Twitter and stuff like that. I don’t even think they know how to tweet, but they always have something going on.”
He also said: “They know what to hit me with and what to keep quiet. They know me so well that they know what I’d like to hear and what I don’t need to hear. There’s a couple slip-ups here and there, I’m not going to lie to you, but they’re just so excited about it. It’s an exciting time, and they’re loving it.”